The impact on astronomical research of much lower satellite constellations could be mixed. A satellite at 120 miles (200 km) is roughly two magnitudes brighter than one at 340 miles (550 km). But it is also visible for less time — by flying lower, it both moves faster and reflects sunlight for a shorter fraction of the night.
“The issues with a 200-km constellation are probably similar to those we face with Starlink,” says Jeffrey Hall, director of Lowell Observatory. “Satellites at any of these altitudes are blindingly bright for any research telescope — more than enough to saturate detectors,” he says.
But the impact on the night sky for amateurs and stargazers could be more severe. Starlink satellites in their final 550 km orbits “will be below naked-eye visibility, but a large constellation at 200 km probably would be visible, and this could seriously impact the visual appearance of the night sky,” says Hall. “The impacts and concerns there would extend well beyond astronomy.”
Growth triggers
ASEP technology is still in the research and development phase. But as the space market continues to develop, this technology could quickly find itself in the spotlight if the commercial incentives align, says Jones — for instance, if the space tug market takes off, or if concerns around orbital debris reach a fever pitch. “We think there’s going to be some interests that come into play to really advance this market,” says Jones.
And though some technical challenges remain, space technology can shift rapidly, notes Spektor. “I think we’re almost there, to be honest,” he says. “Whether it’s going to take two years or 10 years, it’s hard to say. You know, we’ve been trying to land rockets vertically for a long time, and suddenly — boom, we’re there.”
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